Ensemble Forecasting and Data Assimilation: Two Problems with the Same Solution?
نویسنده
چکیده
Until 1991, operational NWP centers used to integrate a single control forecast starting from the analysis, which is the best estimate of the state of the atmosphere at the initial time. In December 1992, both NCEP and ECMWF started running ensembles of forecasts from slightly perturbed initial conditions (Molteni and Palmer, 1993, Buizza, 1997, Toth and Kalnay, 1993, Tracton and Kalnay, 1993, Toth and Kalnay, 1997).
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